Waterloo Region Market Briefing: November 2026

This monthly briefing is prepared by Fantome Agency on behalf of William Forbes. Figures are current as of the October 2026 reporting period (published November 4, 2026), drawn from the Cornerstone Association of REALTORS (formerly WRAR), WOWA, CMHC, and the Bank of Canada.

---

Fantome: One line. Where is the market right now?

William: Balanced, a little busier, and tighter than it was a year ago. The average sale price across Waterloo Region was $725,287 in October, down just 0.4% from a year ago and up about 3.0% from September. Sales rose to 507, up about 22% from September but still about 11.4% below last October. New listings fell to 1,031, down about 16% from September and about 17% from a year ago. Put those together and months of supply tightened to 3.6, from 3.8 in September and 3.9 last October.

Fantome: And the big news was the Bank of Canada. What happened?

William: On October 28 the Bank raised its overnight rate by a quarter point, from 2.25% to 2.50%. Its reason was inflation. Headline inflation has been near 3% since April, energy prices are a big driver, and the Bank expects it to reach about 3.5% by the end of the year. It also said it may need to raise again, and that it will move cautiously. It also said housing is expected to stay relatively weak.

I have been trading for more than 15 years, and the lesson there applies here: do not build a plan around the rate you hope for. Last month I said I would not underwrite a deal that depends on another cut. This month's hike is a reminder of why. The next decision is December 9.

Fantome: Last month you said the average price and the benchmark were telling different stories. Still true?

William: Yes. The average sale price is nearly flat on the year, at down 0.4%. The benchmark, which tracks a typical home with the same features month to month, is still down 4.7% in Kitchener-Waterloo, at $624,600, and down 6.3% in Cambridge, at $644,400. Both benchmarks also slipped from September, by 0.9% and 2.8%. Every property type's average is down more than the overall average, from 0.8% for semis to 9.4% for condos, which tells you the mix of what sold shifted toward pricier homes. The average is telling you what traded. The benchmark is telling you what a typical home is worth. If you want to know where values are, watch the benchmark.

For buyers

William: Two things changed for you this month. Prices on a typical home are still lower than a year ago, and borrowing got a little more expensive. A typical Kitchener-Waterloo home is about 4.7% cheaper than last October, and a typical Cambridge home about 6.3% cheaper. That is still real room. But a quarter-point hike, and a central bank saying it may go again, means waiting carries more risk than it did last month.

So get your financing sorted first. A pre-approval letter and a real, lender-backed number are two different things, and I want my buyers walking in with the second one. I will connect you with my mortgage partner so you know your actual number, including the cash you need to close. Ask them how long they can hold your rate, because that matters more in a month like this.

Then shop by segment, because they are not moving together. Condos are at 7.0 months of supply, a genuine buyer's market, with the average condo at $392,861, down 9.4% on the year. Townhouses are at 4.3 months, balanced. Detached homes are at 3.1 months and semis at 1.8, which is the tight end of the market. Be patient and conditional on a condo. On a good detached home or semi, bring your best realistic offer. Semi supply is lower than a year ago, at 1.8 months against 2.1, and detached is level with last October at 3.1, so you will not wait out many sellers there.

For sellers

William: The supply picture is in your favour. New listings dropped to 1,031 in October, about 17% fewer than a year ago, while sales picked up about 22% from September. Months of supply is 3.6, down from 3.9 last October. Homes sold in an average of 31 days, the same as a year ago. That is a steady, balanced market, not a stalled one.

Do not let the headline average set your price, though. At $725,287, down only 0.4% on the year, it makes the market look flat. The benchmark for a typical home is still down 4.7% to 6.3% depending on where you are, and it slipped again in October. Price off your own segment and your own comparables.

Segment is everything. Detached homes average $828,468, down 0.9% on the year, at 3.1 months of supply. Semis average $568,696, down 0.8%, at 1.8 months. Those are the tight end of the market, and a correctly priced, well-prepared listing can still draw competition going into winter. Townhouses at $543,736, down 8.5%, and condos at $392,861, down 9.4%, face more competition, so optimistic pricing there will cost you time. Let me pull the actual comparables for your property type and your pocket of the region before you choose a number.

For investors

William: Start with the rate. The overnight rate is now 2.50%, and the Bank has said another increase is possible. I run a rental the way I run a position: entry, carry, downside, exit. The overnight rate moves variable-rate mortgages and lines of credit directly, while fixed rates follow bond yields, so check which one you are carrying. The carry just got a little more expensive, so stress-test your numbers at a higher rate than today's, not a lower one. If a deal only works if rates come back down, it does not work.

The leverage is still in condos. At 7.0 months of supply and an average of $392,861, down 9.4% on the year, that is where you have the most room to negotiate. The flip side is the exit: the same supply that gets you a discount going in is what you will compete against when you sell.

On the rental side, CMHC's October 2025 survey is still the latest official read. It put purpose-built rental vacancy in Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo at 4.1%, a multi-decade high, with the average 2-bedroom rent around $1,832 across all tenants, up 3.3% on the year, which is not the same as what a new tenant is quoted today. That survey covers purpose-built rentals; CMHC's separate condo numbers showed rented condo vacancy under 1%, so a well-priced condo rental has been leasing. CMHC runs its rental survey every fall, so a fresh read is due soon, and I will bring it to you when it lands. Until then, underwrite at a realistic vacancy, not full occupancy. Send me an address and I will run the honest version with you, including the version where it does not work.

For first-time buyers

William: If a new build is on your list, the calendar is getting shorter. The Ontario enhanced new-home rebate applies to purchase agreements signed from April 1, 2026 to March 31, 2027, which is now about five months away. It returns up to $80,000 of the provincial share of HST on a qualifying new home that will be your primary residence, and it is not limited to first-time buyers. First-time buyers can also claim the federal first-time buyer rebate, worth up to $50,000 on the federal share of HST, in full on a new home up to $1 million and partially up to $1.5 million. Depending on the deal, a rebate may be credited by the builder on closing or claimed from the CRA afterward, and the CRA route can be slow. How the rebates apply to you, and how they are paid, depends on the deal, so get it confirmed in writing by your builder and your lawyer before you sign, and do not count a rebate toward your down payment.

The rate hike matters most to you, because first-time budgets are usually the tightest. Get a real, lender-backed pre-approval before you shop, ask how long the rate is held, and build a closing-cost buffer. The Bank has signalled that rates may rise further, so plan for that.

The everyday tools still do a lot of work. The FHSA lets you save up to $40,000 tax-free ($8,000 a year). The RRSP Home Buyers' Plan lets you withdraw up to $60,000. First-time buyers get up to $4,000 back on Ontario land transfer tax. And Waterloo Region has no municipal land transfer tax, so closing costs here are lower than a Toronto-written guide will tell you.

Fantome: Last word. What are you watching heading into next month?

William: Three things. First, the December 9 Bank of Canada decision. The Bank has opened the door to another increase. A second hike would test buyers heading into the slow season, and a hold would tell us October was a one-off adjustment.

Second, whether the benchmark finds a floor. Last month I said I wanted to see both benchmarks stop falling on the year before calling a bottom. That has not happened yet. Kitchener-Waterloo is down 4.7% and Cambridge down 6.3%, and both slipped again from September.

Third, the supply trend. Last month I asked whether supply would keep tightening into the fall. September loosened slightly to 3.8 months, then October tightened to 3.6, below last year's 3.9. If November and December keep listings low while buyers stay active, sellers in the tight segments go into spring in a stronger position than last year.

Overall it is a balanced market, with less supply than a year ago and slightly more expensive money. Whether that works for you depends on your segment, your price, and your financing, so call me if you want the numbers for your own situation.

Want William's read on your specific situation? Call or text 519-841-9098, or reach out here.